背景：目前尚不清楚家族性腺瘤病（FAP）的长期保护结果如何。我们旨在量化监测结果并确定选择可能的预测因素中哪些与袋体异型相关。方法：我们对249名患者的收集数据进行了回溯性分析。我们使用Cox比例风险模型分析了发展成腺瘤或高级病变（≥10mm /高级异型/癌症）在袋体（PB）和袖口中的潜在风险因素。 Kaplan-Meier分析包括在手术后10年的重要“时间点”分析以预测未来发生高级病变的风险。结果：249名患者中，75％的人发展了≥1个PB腺瘤。16％的人发展了高级PB病变; 18％的人发生高级的袖口病变。 Kaplan-Meier分析显示，在PB或袖口中发生大多数高级病变之前有10年的滞后期; PB和袖口在十年后的肿瘤累积发病率分别为2.8％和6.4％。关键分析表明，在10年点之前存在腺瘤与随后发展PB的高级病变[HR 4.8（1.6-14.1），P = 0.004]和袖口[HR 6.8（2.5-18.3），p <0.001]。袖口中有2例HGD和4例癌症病例，PB中有1例癌症； 所有有先前监测的癌症/HGD病例都先行出现了10mm腺瘤。结论：囊袋腺瘤进展缓慢，大多数高级病变在十年后发生。高级异型和癌症是罕见事件。第一个十年的袋体表型与未来发展高级病变的风险有关，可能会指导个性化监测超过十年。作者（s）。这是由Thieme发表的一篇开放获取文章，接受创作共同体-非衍生-非商业许可证，允许拷贝和复制，只要原作品得到适当的信用。内容不可用于商业目的，也不可改编，混合，转换或构建。(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)。

Background Long-term pouch surveillance outcomes for familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) are unknown. We aimed to quantify surveillance outcomes and to determine which of selected possible predictive factors is associated with pouch dysplasia. Methods We performed retrospective analysis of collected data on 249 patients. We analysed potential risk factors for developing adenomas or advanced lesions (≥10mm/high grade dysplasia (HGD)/cancer) in the pouch body (PB) and cuff using Cox proportional hazards models. Kaplan-Meier analyses included landmark 'time-point' analyses at 10 years after surgery to predict future risk of advanced lesions. Results Of 249 patients, 75% developed ≥ 1 PB adenoma. Sixteen percent developed an advanced PB lesion; 18% developed an advanced cuff lesion. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a 10-year lag before most advanced lesions developed in the PB or cuff; cumulative incidence of 2.8% and 6.4% at ten years in PB and cuff, respectively. Landmark-analysis suggested that presence of adenomas prior to the 10-year point is associated with subsequent development of advanced lesions in the PB [HR 4.8 (1.6-14.1), P=0.004] and cuff [HR 6.8 (2.5-18.3), p<0.001]. There were two HGD and four cancer cases in the cuff and one PB cancer; all cases of cancer/HGD which had prior surveillance were preceded by 10mm adenomas. Conclusions Pouch adenoma progression is slow and most advanced lesions occur after ten years. High grade dysplasia and cancer were rare events. Pouch phenotype in the first decade is associated with future risk of developing advanced lesions and may guide personalised surveillance beyond ten years.The Author(s). This is an open access article published by Thieme under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonDerivative-NonCommercial-License, permitting copying and reproduction so long as the original work is given appropriate credit. Contents may not be used for commercial purposes, or adapted, remixed, transformed or built upon. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).