新的治疗选择和手术中心化已经改善了非转移性食管或胃癌患者的生存率。然而，尚不清楚哪些患者从治疗进展中受益最大。本研究的目的是确定关于生存时间的最佳、典型和最糟情况，并评估与这些情况相关的生存是否随时间变化而改变。挑选了 2006-2020 年间在荷兰癌症登记处登记的非转移性可切除食管或胃癌患者。定义了最佳情况（20%分位数）、上典型情况（40%分位数）、典型情况（中位数）、下典型情况（60%分位数）和最糟情况（80%分位数）的生存情况，并使用回归分析研究每种情形的生存时间在不同年份之间的变化。对于食管癌患者（N = 24,352），最佳情况、上典型、中位数、下典型和最糟情况的生存时间分别平均每年改善了12.0（直到2011年）、1.5（直到2018年）、0.7、0.4和0.2个月。对于胃癌患者（N = 9,993），最佳情况的生存时间保持不变，而上典型、中位数、下典型和最糟情况的生存时间平均每年分别改善了1.0（直到2018年）、0.5、0.2 和 0.2 个月。亚组分析表明，几乎所有患者的生存情况都得到改善，并且对于有角质细胞癌或腺癌的患者也是如此。总的来说，生存状况改善了几乎所有患者，这表明在临床实践中，绝大多数患者从治疗进展中受益。在食管癌患者中，最佳情况的生存优势是最有临床意义的。本文受版权保护，所有权利均归作者所有。

New treatment options and centralization of surgery have improved survival for patients with non-metastatic esophageal or gastric cancer. It is unknown, however, which patients benefitted the most from treatment advances. The aim of this study was to identify best-case, typical and worst-case scenarios in terms of survival time, and to assess if survival associated with these scenarios changed over time. Patients with non-metastatic potentially resectable esophageal or gastric cancer diagnosed between 2006-2020 were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Best-case (20th percentile), upper-typical (40th percentile), typical (median), lower-typical (60th percentile) and worst-case (80th percentile) survival scenarios were defined, and regression analysis was used to investigate the change in survival time for each scenario across years. For patients with esophageal cancer (N = 24 352) survival time improved on average 12.0 (until 2011), 1.5 (until 2018), 0.7, 0.4 and 0.2 months per year for the best-case, upper-typical, median, lower-typical and worst-case scenario, respectively. For patients with gastric cancer (N = 9993) survival time of the best-case scenario remained constant, whereas the upper-typical, median, lower-typical and worst-case scenario improved on average with 1.0 (until 2018), 0.5, 0.2, and 0.2 months per year, respectively. Subgroup analyses showed that, survival scenarios improved for nearly all patients across treatment groups and for patients with squamous cell carcinomas or adenocarcinomas. Survival improved for almost all patients suggesting that in clinical practice the vast majority of patients benefitted from treatment advances. The clinically most meaningful survival advantage was observed for the best-case scenario of esophageal cancer. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.