本研究旨在验证DCIS-upstage模型，该模型旨在预测经活检证实的原位导管癌（DCIS）患者向浸润性乳腺癌升级的风险，在较近期的队列中进行验证，并评估该模型的临床应用价值。该模型在登记队列（n = 2269）和机构队列（n = 302）中进行了验证。首先制作了校准图，然后进行了决策曲线分析（DCA）。该模型的曲线下面积（AUC）与另一个已发表的模型的AUC以及使用DCIS-upstage模型的风险因素和其他风险因素的新模型的AUC进行了比较。DCIS-upstage模型在开发阶段的AUC为0.67；在验证中，登记队列的AUC为0.65，机构队列的AUC为0.73。DCA显示该模型具有临床应用价值。另一个已发表的模型在机构队列中的AUC为0.66。将风险因素添加到DCIS-upstage模型中略微增加了AUC。DCIS-upstage预测模型在其他队列中也是有效的。该模型具有临床应用价值，并可用于选择经活检证实的DCIS患者进行哨兵淋巴结活检。© 2023. 作者。

This study aimed to validate the DCIS-upstage model, a previously developed model to predict the risk of upstaging to invasive breast cancer in patients with biopsy-proven ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in a more recent cohort and to assess the model's clinical utility.The model was validated in a registry cohort (n = 2269) and in an institution cohort (n = 302). A calibration plot was made, followed by a decision curve analysis (DCA). The model's area under the curve (AUC) was compared with the AUC of another published model and with the AUCs of new models using the risk factors of the DCIS-upstage model and additional risk factors.The DCIS-upstage model had an AUC of 0.67 at development; in the validation, the AUC was 0.65 in the registry cohort and 0.73 in the institution cohort. The DCA showed that the model has clinical utility. The other published model had an AUC of 0.66 in the institution cohort. Adding risk factors to the DCIS-upstage model slightly increased the AUC.The DCIS-upstage prediction model is valid in other cohorts. The model has clinical utility and may be used to select patients with biopsy-proven DCIS for sentinel lymph node biopsy.© 2023. The Author(s).