加拿大被诊断出患有癌症的人数以及随后对放射治疗的需求预计将随时间增加。本研究旨在更新我们的基于需求的劳动力规划模型，以确保未来适当的人员配备水平。采用递归老龄化的输入-输出模型，使用来自国家来源的播种参数，对2020年至2040年的放射肿瘤学家的供给按年龄组、性别和全职等价值（FTE）状态进行了预测。根据放射治疗的转诊模式和咨询工作量指标，估计了到2040年的放射肿瘤学家需求，并应用于预计的年癌症发生病例来计算所需的FTE职位。还将基线模型参数应用于2005-2019年的劳动力和发病病例数据，以评估预测前供需趋势。 2005-2019年的预测前趋势显示，人员配备增长加速，从2014年的劳动力短缺转变为2016年的大幅增长减缓后进入剩余状态。该模型预测到2026年将出现一时性的放射肿瘤学家剩余，随后进入预计的供给不足期。对每个参数的合理范围进行的敏感性分析仍然有利于不足供给，表明实习医生短缺无法满足人员配备扩大的需求。考虑到未来放射治疗利用率和工作量可能下降的趋势，对居住医师人数进行纠正的计算结果为每年增加25个入职职位，目前每年为21个。根据人员配备和癌症发生分布情况，加拿大以外地区的实习医师更多的培养位置可以改善地理分布。 加拿大对放射治疗和放射肿瘤学家的需求预计将比人员配备的未来扩展更快地增长。我们的劳动力规划模型为增加实习生需求提供了证据，以通知利益相关者可能的纠正培训计划和招聘措施。需要进一步研究以探索扩大容量和高质量提供放射治疗的额外策略，以满足加拿大癌症患者数量的预见性增长。 版权©2023年 Elsevier Inc.出版

The number of Canadians diagnosed with cancer, and subsequent demand for radiotherapy, are expected to increase over time. This study aims to update our needs-based workforce planning model to ensure appropriate staffing levels in the future.The supply of radiation oncologists, by age group, sex, and full-time equivalent (FTE) status, was projected from 2020 to 2040 using a recursive-aging, input-output model developed with seeding parameters derived from national sources. The demand for radiation oncologists until 2040 was estimated using referral patterns for radiotherapy and consultation workload metrics applied to projected annual cancer incident cases to calculate required FTE positions. Baseline model parameters were also applied to 2005-2019 workforce and incident case data to evaluate pre-projection supply and demand trends.Pre-projection trends for 2005-2019 revealed accelerated staffing growth that transitioned from a workforce shortage to a surplus state in 2014 followed by substantial growth slowdown in 2016. The model predicts a transient surplus of radiation oncologists until 2026 followed by a projected deficit in subsequent years. Sensitivity analyses using the plausible range for each parameter continued to favor an undersupply, suggesting a trainee shortage unable to meet workforce expansion needs. Considering possible future declining trends in radiotherapy utilization and workload, calculations to inform corrective efforts in resident numbers resulted in 25 entry positions per year, up from 21 per year currently. Geographic distribution of trainees, relative to workforce and cancer incidence distributions, could be improved with more residency positions in Canadian regions outside Ontario.Demand for radiotherapy and radiation oncologists in Canada are expected to grow more quickly than future expansion in staffing levels. Our workforce planning model provides evidence for more trainee requirements to inform stakeholders of possible corrective actions to training programs and recruitment. Further research is needed to explore additional strategies to expand capacity and high-quality delivery of radiotherapy that meet the foreseeable rise in Canadian cancer patients.Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Inc.