非肌层浸润性膀胱癌（NMIBC）是一组预后不同的异质性肿瘤。本基于人群的研究旨在报告NMIBC的现实临床癌症特异性生存（CSS），并基于已鉴定的风险因素创建一个预后评分系统。我们在Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results数据库中检索了2004年至2015年NMIBC诊断患者，他们接受了膀胱肿瘤经尿道切除术。数据集被分为开发组和验证组。使用Cox比例风险模型鉴定与CSS相关的因素，并利用这些因素构建预后评分系统。共纳入了98,238例NMIBC患者。在中位随访时间124个月（IQR 81-157个月）内，T1HG的癌症特异性死亡率（CSM）最高（19.52%），其次是Tis（15.56%），T1LG和TaHG大致相当（分别为10.88%和9.23%），而TaLG最低（3.76%）。多变量Cox回归预测CSS，确定了以下风险因素：肿瘤T分期和分级、年龄、肿瘤大小和位置、组织学类型、原发性特征、种族、收入和婚姻状况。在验证组中，该模型的曲线下面积（AUC）为0.824，C-index为0.795。在NMIBC中，特别是T1HG患者，存在显著的长期CSM风险。尽管不常见，TaHG和T1LG肿瘤应被视为高风险，其CSM约为10%。T分期、分级和年龄仍然是NMIBC CSS的最重要的决定因素，但社会人口统计学因素可能也会影响其预后。© 2023. 作者。

Non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) constitutes a heterogeneous group of tumors with different prognoses. This population-based study aimed to report real-world cancer-specific survival (CSS) of NMIBC and create a prognostic nomogram based on the identified risk factors.The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was searched for patients diagnosed with NMIBC from 2004 to 2015, who underwent transurethral resection of the bladder tumor. The dataset was divided into development and validation cohorts. Factors associated with CSS were identified using Cox proportional hazards and used to develop a prognostic nomogram.In total, 98,238 patients with NMIBC were included. At the median follow-up of 124 months (IQR 81-157 months), cancer-specific mortality (CSM) was highest for T1HG (19.52%), followed by Tis (15.56%), similar for T1LG and TaHG (10.88% and 9.23%, respectively), and lowest for TaLG (3.76%). Multivariable Cox regression for CSS prediction was utilized to develop a nomogram including the following risk factors: tumor T category and grade, age, tumor size and location, histology type, primary character, race, income, and marital status. In the validation cohort, the model was characterized by an AUC of 0.824 and C-index that reached 0.795.To conclude, NMIBC is associated with a significant risk of long-term CSM especially, but not only, in patients with T1HG. Rarely diagnosed TaHG and T1LG tumors should be regarded as high-risk due to approximately 10% CSM. T category, grading, and age remain the most powerful determinants of CSS in NMIBC, but sociodemographic factors might also influence its prognosis.© 2023. The Author(s).