本研究旨在为住院儿童开发和验证中心静脉通路装置相关血栓形成（CRT）的评分模型。随机选取湖南省长沙市一家医院连续入院的503例患者，按7:3的比例将其分为训练集和内部验证集；同时收集新疆维吾尔自治区乌鲁木齐市两家医院85例连续患者作为外部验证集。进行CRT相关危险因素的单因素分析和多因素分析，运用 logistic 回归模型建立评分模型，对所提出的评分模型进行判别、校准和决策曲线分析。评分模型包含盲插导管、肝功能异常、中心导管相关血流感染、其他感染、导管数量、白血病和卧床伏案超过72小时等7个独立危险因素。判别结果表明，训练集、内部验证集和外部验证集的受试者工作特征曲线下面积分别为0.74、0.71和0.76，并且在训练集、内部验证集和外部验证集中，所提出的评分模型的准确率分别为79%、72%和71%。校准结果也显示各组数据集的校准曲线拟合良好。更为重要的是，决策曲线显示所提出的评分模型具有显著的临床意义。该评分模型可作为风险评估工具，降低住院儿童CRT漏诊率和发病率。 • 对于住院儿童而言，中心静脉通路装置相关血栓形成通常无明显症状，易导致此疾病的漏诊。 • 目前尚未建立适用于住院儿童中心静脉通路装置相关血栓形成风险预测评分模型。 • 本研究建立了一种可视化个性化评分模型，利用7项易获取的变量（盲插导管、肝功能异常、中心导管相关血流感染、其他感染、导管数量、白血病和卧床伏案超过72小时）。 • 该模型可有效预测住院儿童中心静脉通路装置相关血栓形成的风险。 © 2023. 作者（们），利用独家许可授予 Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany，属于 Springer Nature 之一。

This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram model of central venous access device-related thrombosis (CRT) for hospitalized children. A total of 503 consecutive cases from a hospital in Changsha City, Hunan Province were stochastically classified into the training set and internal validation set at a ratio of 7:3, and 85 consecutive cases in two hospitals in Urumqi City, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region were collected as an external validation set. Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis on CRT-related risk factors of hospitalized children were conducted, a logistic regression model was employed to establish the nomogram, and the discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis was performed to assess the proposed nomogram model. The nomogram model involved seven independent risk factors, including blind catheterization, abnormal liver function, central line-associated bloodstream infection, infection, number of catheter lines, leukemia, and bed rest > 72 h. The discrimination results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the training set, internal validation set, and external validation set was 0.74, 0.71, and 0.76 respectively, and the accuracy rates of the proposed nomogram model were 79%, 72%, and 71% in the training set, internal validation set, and external validation set. The calibration results also showed that the calibration curve had great fitness for each dataset. More importantly, the decision curve suggested that the proposed nomogram model had a prominent clinical significance.The nomogram model can be used as a risk assessment tool to reduce the missed diagnosis rate and the incidence of CRT in hospitalized children.• Central venous access device-related thrombosis is generally asymptomatic for hospitalized children, causing the missed diagnosis of central venous access device-related thrombosis easily. • No risk prediction nomogram model for central venous access device-related thrombosis in hospitalized children has been established.• A visual and personalized nomogram model was built by seven accessible variables (blind catheterization, abnormal liver function, central line-associated bloodstream infection, infection, number of catheter lines, leukemia, and bed rest > 72 h). • The model can effectively predict the risk of central venous access device-related thrombosis for hospitalized children.© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.