冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 可能会导致严重并发症并增加死亡率。在疾病早期幸存下来的患者的结果是持续的长期症状以及长期发病率和死亡率的增加。我们研究的目的是确定哪些基线参数可以提供早期和长期结果的最佳预测。研究组由 141 名因 COVID-19 住院的患者组成。收集人口统计数据、临床数据和实验室参数。主要研究终点定义为院内死亡率和一年死亡率。评估基线数据和研究终点之间的关联。建立了预测模型。院内死亡率为20.5%（n = 29）。与幸存者相比，非幸存者年龄明显更大 (p = 0.001)，并出现合并症，包括糖尿病 (0.027) 和心房颤动 (p = 0.006)。对基线实验室标志物和早期死亡时间的评估显示，早期死亡时间与较高的 IL-6 水平 (p = 0.032；Spearman rho - 0.398) 和较低的淋巴细胞计数 (p = 0.018；Pearson r -0.438) 呈负相关。一年死亡率为 35.5% (n = 50)。 1 年无幸存者亚组年龄较大 (p<0.001)，且患有动脉高血压 (p=0.009)、糖尿病 (p=0.023)、心房颤动 (p=0.046) 和活动性恶性肿瘤 (p=0.024) 的患者较多幸存者亚组。由糖尿病和心房颤动以及IL-6和淋巴细胞计数组成的模型显示了1年死亡风险预测的最高价值。糖尿病和心房颤动作为临床因素，LDH、IL-6和淋巴细胞计数作为实验室决定因素，是 COVID-19 死亡风险的最佳预测因子。© 2024。作者。

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) may lead to serious complications and increased mortality. The outcomes of patients who survive the early disease period are burdened with persistent long-term symptoms and increased long-term morbidity and mortality. The aim of our study was to determine which baseline parameters may provide the best prediction of early and long-term outcomes.The study group comprised 141 patients hospitalized for COVID-19. Demographic data, clinical data and laboratory parameters were collected. The main study endpoints were defined as in-hospital mortality and 1-year mortality. The associations between the baseline data and the study endpoints were evaluated. Prediction models were created.The in-hospital mortality rate was 20.5% (n = 29). Compared with survivors, nonsurvivors were significantly older (p = 0.001) and presented comorbidities, including diabetes (0.027) and atrial fibrillation (p = 0.006). Assessment of baseline laboratory markers and time to early death revealed negative correlations between time to early death and higher IL-6 levels (p = 0.032; Spearman rho - 0.398) and lower lymphocyte counts (p = 0.018; Pearson r -0.438). The one-year mortality rate was 35.5% (n = 50). The 1-year nonsurvivor subgroup was older (p < 0.001) and had more patients with arterial hypertension (p = 0.009), diabetes (p = 0.023), atrial fibrillation (p = 0.046) and active malignancy (p = 0.024) than did the survivor subgroup. The model composed of diabetes and atrial fibrillation and IL-6 with lymphocyte count revealed the highest value for 1-year mortality risk prediction.Diabetes and atrial fibrillation, as clinical factors, and LDH, IL-6 and lymphocyte count, as laboratory determinants, are the best predictors of COVID-19 mortality risk.© 2024. The Author(s).