肺癌（LC）是目前我国死亡率第一的恶性肿瘤，疾病负担严重。该研究旨在分析1990年至2019年中国LC及其危险因素归因疾病的趋势，并对未来41年进行预测。采用平均年百分比变化（AAPC）分析LC及其危险因素归因发病率的趋势， 《2019 年全球疾病负担》中收集的 1990 年至 2019 年中国的死亡人数和伤残调整生命年 (DALY) 率。Cochran-Armitage 趋势研究了按性别、年龄和可归因危险因素分组划分的肺癌疾病负担趋势中国1990年至2019年。此外，基于1990年至2019年LC导致的死亡率和DALYs率及其危险因素的数据，建立了自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型来预测LC负担趋势的变化。研究了未来 41 年因 LC 引起的疾病及其危险因素，并使用模型参数均方根误差、平均绝对误差和平均绝对百分比误差对模型进行了评估。 1990 年至 2019 年，LC 的发病率、死亡率和 DALY LC均增加。在与肺癌相关的8个危险因素中，1990年至2019年，中国居民肺癌危险因素的DALYs率和死亡率均呈上升趋势，但固体燃料造成的家庭空气污染和饮食中水果含量低的情况有所下降；其中，环境颗粒物污染造成的伤残调整生命年率和死亡率增幅最大，AAPC值分别为2.880和3.310；固体燃料造成的家庭空气污染造成的伤残调整生命年率和死亡率下降幅度最大，AAPC值分别为2.880和3.310。分别为-4.755 和-4.348。 ARIMA模型预测结果显示，肺癌死亡率和DALY率均呈逐年上升趋势，预计到2060年肺癌DALY率将达到740.095/100 000，死亡率将达到35.151/100 000。预计到2060年，我国肺癌的四大危险因素依次为DALYs率和死亡率、吸烟、环境颗粒物污染、高空腹血糖（HFPG）、 1990年至2019年中国LC负担有所增加，未来40年HFPG造成的LC负担将持续增加，到2060年将成为第三大因素. 有针对性的干预措施有助于预防 LC 并改善 LC 患者的健康相关生活质量。© 2024 作者。约翰·威利出版的《胸部癌症》

Lung cancer (LC) is currently the number one malignancy death rate disease in China, and its disease burden is serious. The study aimed to analyze trends of LC and its risk factor attributable disease in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the next 41 years.The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to analyze the trend of LC and its risk factor attributable incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate in China from 1990 to 2019, collected in the Global Burden of Disease 2019. Cochran-Armitage trends examine trends in lung cancer disease burden by sex, age, and attributable risk factor groups in China from 1990 to 2019. In addition, based on data on death and DALYs rate due to LC and its risk factors between 1990 and 2019, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was developed to predict the change in the trend of burden of disease due to LC and its risk factors over the next 41 years, and the model was evaluated using the model parameters root mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error.From 1990 to 2019, the incidence, mortality and DALYs of LC were all increased. Among the eight risk factors associated with lung cancer, the DALYs rate and mortality rate of lung cancer risk factors for Chinese residents increased from 1990 to 2019, except for household air pollution from solid fuels and diet low in fruit, which showed a decrease; among them, the DALYs rate and mortality rate due to ambient particulate matter pollution showed the greatest increase with AAPC values of 2.880 and 3.310, respectively, while DALYs and mortality rates due to household air pollution from solid fuels showed the largest decreases, with AAPC values of -4.755 and -4.348, respectively. The results of the ARIMA model predictions show that both the mortality rate and the rate of DALYs for lung cancer are increasing yearly, and it is predicted that the rate of DALYs for lung cancer by 2060 will reach 740.095/100 000 and the mortality rate will reach 35.151/100 000. It is expected that by 2060, the top four risk factors for lung cancer in China will be, in order of DALYs rate and mortality rate, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG), and secondhand smoke, with HFPG showing the greatest increase.The LC burden increased from 1990 to 2019 in China, the LC burden that could be attributed to HFPG will continue to increase in the next 40 years, and will be the third most factor by 2060. Targeted interventions are warranted to facilitate the prevention of LC and improvement of health-related quality of life patients with LC.© 2024 The Author(s). Thoracic Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.