癌症幸存者的数量和预测对于满足患者的医疗保健需求是必要的，而治愈率的数据，即自诊断以来不会死于癌症的患者的百分比，却缺乏。来自意大利癌症登记处的数据（登记持续时间范围为 9 至 40 年，中位数为 22 年），覆盖了 47% 的人口，用于计算按癌症类型划分的有限期限患病率、2018 年的完全患病率、到 2030 年的预测以及治愈率、性别、年龄和自诊断以来的时间。2018 年，意大利共有 3 347 809 人被诊断出癌症后仍然活着，相当于常住人口的 5.6%。到2030年，他们将每年增加1.5%，达到4 012 376人，相当于常住人口的6.9%，女性的7.6%，75岁以后的约22%。到 2030 年，一半以上的流行病例（200 万）将在 10 年后确诊。患有乳腺癌（105万）、前列腺癌（56万）或结直肠癌（47万）的患者将占所有患病患者的52%。 2018 年，所有存活患者的治愈率为 86%（乳腺癌患者为 87%，甲状腺癌或睾丸癌患者为 99%），随着诊断后时间的延长，5 年后存活患者的治愈率为 93%，10 年后存活患者的治愈率为 96%年。在存活至少 5 年的患者中，大多数癌症类型的患者的超额死亡风险（1 - 治愈率）<5%，乳腺癌 (8.3%)、肺癌 (11.1%)、肾癌除外（13.2%）和膀胱（15.5%）。研究结果鼓励实施循证政策，旨在改善癌症诊断后患者整个病程的长期临床随访和康复。完整患病率的更新估计对于增强数据驱动的癌症控制规划非常重要。版权所有 © 2024 作者。由爱思唯尔有限公司出版。保留所有权利。

The number and projections of cancer survivors are necessary to meet the healthcare needs of patients, while data on cure prevalence, that is, the percentage of patients who will not die of cancer by time since diagnosis, are lacking.Data from Italian cancer registries (duration of registration ranged from 9 to 40 years, with a median of 22 years) covering 47% of the population were used to calculate the limited-duration prevalence, the complete prevalence in 2018, projections to 2030, and cure prevalence, by cancer type, sex, age, and time since diagnosis.A total of 3 347 809 people were alive in Italy in 2018 after a cancer diagnosis, corresponding to 5.6% of the resident population. They will increase by 1.5% per year to 4 012 376 in 2030, corresponding to 6.9% of the resident population, 7.6% of women and ∼22% after age 75 years. In 2030, more than one-half of all prevalent cases (2 million) will have been diagnosed by ≥10 years. Those with breast (1.05 million), prostate (0.56 million), or colorectal cancers (0.47 million) will be 52% of all prevalent patients. Cure prevalence was 86% for all patients alive in 2018 (87% for patients with breast cancer and 99% for patients with thyroid or testicular cancer), increasing with time since diagnosis to 93% for patients alive after 5 years and 96% after 10 years. Among patients who survived at least 5 years, the excess risk of death (1 - cure prevalence) was <5% for patients with most cancer types except for those with cancers of the breast (8.3%), lung (11.1%), kidney (13.2%), and bladder (15.5%).Study findings encourage the implementation of evidence-based policies aimed at improving long-term clinical follow-up and rehabilitation of people living after cancer diagnosis throughout the course of the disease. Updated estimates of complete prevalence are important to enhance data-driven cancer control planning.Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.