美国国家综合癌症网络推荐采用全新辅助治疗 (TNT) 来治疗局部晚期直肠癌 (LARC)，但极少数研究重点关注建立列线图来预测 TNT 治疗后这些患者的预后。我们的目的是开发列线图来预测接受 TNT 的直肠癌患者的总生存期 (OS)。在回顾性队列研究中，我们从 SEER 数据库中提取 2010 年至 2015 年间直肠癌患者的数据，包括人口统计信息和肿瘤特征。队列按照7:3的比例分为训练集和验证集。利用单变量逻辑回归分析来比较训练集中的变量。训练集中P<0.1的候选变量进入最佳子集选择、LASSO回归和Boruta特征选择。最后，选择与 3 年、5 年和 8 年 OS 显着相关的变量用于构建列线图，然后使用受试者工作特征 (ROC) 曲线、曲线下面积 (AUC) 和校准曲线。本研究共纳入 3265 名直肠癌患者（训练集：2285；测试集：980）。根据年龄、家庭收入、原位/恶性肿瘤总数、CEA、T 分期、N 分期和神经周围侵犯，开发列线图来预测 3 年、5 年和 8 年 OS。该列线图在预测 3 年、5 年和 8 年 OS 方面表现出良好的效率，训练集和测试集分别具有良好的 AUC。我们建立了用于预测 3 年、5 年和 8 年 OS 的列线图。直肠癌患者的一年 OS，对 TNT 后的 OS 显示出良好的预测效率。© 2024。Springer Nature Switzerland AG。

Total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) has been recommended by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network for treating locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), but extremely rare studies have focused on establishing nomograms to predict the prognosis in these patients after TNT. We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) in rectal cancer patients who underwent TNT.In retrospective cohort study, we extract the data of the rectal cancer patients from the SEER database between 2010 and 2015, including demographic information and tumor characteristics. The cohort was divided into training set and validation set based on a ratio of 7:3. Univariate logistic regression analysis was utilized for the comparison of variables in training set. Candidate variables with P < 0.1 in training set was entered into the best subset selection, LASSO regression and Boruta feature selection. Finally, the selected variables significantly associated with the 3-year, 5-year, and 8-year OS were used to build a nomogram, followed by validation using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, area under the curve (AUC), and calibration curve.A total of 3265 rectal cancer patients (training set: 2285; test set: 980) were included in the present study. A nomogram was developed to predict the 3-year, 5-year, and 8-year OS based on age, household income, total number of in situ/malignant tumors, CEA, T stage, N stage and perineural invasion. The nomogram showed good efficiency in predicting the 3-year, 5-year and 8-year OS with good AUC for the training set and test set, respectively.We established a nomogram for predicting the 3-year, 5-year, and 8-year OS of the rectal cancer patients, which showed good prediction efficiency for the OS after TNT.© 2024. Springer Nature Switzerland AG.