中国是胃癌负担最高的国家之一。本研究的目的是分析1990年至2019年中国大陆胃癌发病率和死亡率的长期趋势，并做出到2030年的预测。胃癌数据来自2019年全球疾病负担研究。 人口数据提取自《2019 年全球疾病负担研究》和《2019 年世界人口展望》。本研究使用了年龄-时期-队列框架和分解分析。胃癌发病率的净漂移为 0.2%（95% 置信区间） [CI]：男性每年 0.0%、0.4%），女性每年 -1.8%（95% CI：-2.0%、-1.6%）。男性死亡率每年净漂移为-1.6%（95% CI：-1.8%，-1.3%），女性每年死亡率净漂移为-3.3%（95% CI：-3.5%，-3.1%）。在过去的10-15年里，男女患胃癌和死亡的风险持续下降。关于出生队列，虽然1920年以后出生的女性和男性胃癌死亡风险总体下降，但最近出生队列（1970年以后出生的男性和1985年以后出生的女性）的发生风险有所增加。预计男性的年龄标准化发病率将增加，女性的年龄标准化发病率将下降，两性的年龄标准化死亡率将下降。预计发病病例和死亡人数增加的最大因素是人口老龄化，预计老年人的发病和死亡比例将增加。在过去三十年中，中国大陆男性胃癌发病率有所增加，预计这一趋势将持续下去。老龄化将是未来胃癌发病和死亡增加的主要原因。为了减少胃癌对健康的影响，需要付出更多努力。版权所有 © 2024 中华医学会，由 Wolters Kluwer, Inc. 根据 CC-BY-NC-ND 许可制作。

China is one of the countries with the highest burdens of stomach cancer. The objective of this study was to analyze long-term trends in the incidence and mortality of stomach cancer in Chinese mainland from 1990 to 2019 and to make projections until 2030.Data on stomach cancer were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. Population data were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 and World Population Prospects 2019. An age-period-cohort framework and decomposition analysis were used in this study.The net drift for the incidence of stomach cancer was 0.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.0%, 0.4%) per year for men and -1.8% (95% CI: -2.0%, -1.6%) for women. The net drift for mortality was -1.6% (95% CI: -1.8%, -1.3%) per year for men and -3.3% (95% CI: -3.5%, -3.1%) for women. In the last 10-15 years, the risk of stomach cancer occurrence and death has continued to decline for both sexes. Regarding birth cohorts, although the risk of stomach cancer death decreased in general among women and men born after 1920, the risk of occurrence increased in recent birth cohorts (men born after 1970 and women born after 1985). It is expected that the age-standardized incidence will increase among men and decrease among women, and age-standardized mortality will decrease for both sexes. The largest contributor to the projected increase in incident cases and deaths is population aging, and elderly individuals are projected to have an increased proportion of occurrence and death.In the past three decades, the incidence of stomach cancer among men has increased in Chinese mainland, and this trend is projected to continue. Aging will be the main contributor to future increased stomach cancer occurrence and deaths. To reduce the health impact of stomach cancer, more efforts are needed.Copyright © 2024 The Chinese Medical Association, produced by Wolters Kluwer, Inc. under the CC-BY-NC-ND license.