许多研究已经开发或验证了预测模型来估计食管癌（EC）患者术后肺炎（POP）的可能性。这些模型的质量及其对临床实践和未来研究的适用性评估仍然未知。本研究系统评估了食管癌手术患者发生 POP 的风险预测模型的偏倚风险和适用性。PubMed、Embase、Web of Science、Cochrane Library、Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Documentation (CINAHL)、China National Knowledge检索中国知网（CNKI）、中国科技期刊数据库（维普）、万方数据库和中国生物医学文献数据库，检索时间为建库至2024年3月12日。两名研究者独立筛选文献并提取数据。采用预测模型偏倚风险评估工具（PROBAST）检查表来评估偏倚风险和适用性。共纳入14项研究，涉及23个模型。这些研究主要发表于2014年至2023年之间。所有研究的适用性都很好。然而，所有研究都存在较高的偏倚风险，主要原因是数据来源不当、样本量不足、变量处理不合理和数据缺失以及缺乏模型验证。食管癌手术患者POP发生率为14.60%～39.26%。最常用的预测因素是吸烟、年龄、慢性阻塞性肺病（COPD）、糖尿病和开胸手术方法。模型间区分度范围为 0.627 至 0.850，敏感性范围为 60.7% 至 84.0%，特异性范围为 59.1% 至 83.9%。 在所有纳入的研究中，食管癌手术患者 POP 风险预测模型均具有良好的区分度，表明模型性能稳定。然而，根据 PROBAST 检查表，所有研究都存在很高的偏倚风险。未来的研究应使用预测模型评估工具来改进研究设计并开发具有更大样本和多中心外部验证的新模型。https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero，标识符 CRD42024527085。版权所有 © 2024 Jiang, Li 、蒋、魏、陈。

Numerous studies have developed or validated prediction models to estimate the likelihood of postoperative pneumonia (POP) in esophageal cancer (EC) patients. The quality of these models and the evaluation of their applicability to clinical practice and future research remains unknown. This study systematically evaluated the risk of bias and applicability of risk prediction models for developing POP in patients undergoing esophageal cancer surgery.PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), China Science and Technology Journal Database (VIP), WanFang Database and Chinese Biomedical Literature Database were searched from inception to March 12, 2024. Two investigators independently screened the literature and extracted data. The Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) checklist was employed to evaluate both the risk of bias and applicability.A total of 14 studies involving 23 models were included. These studies were mainly published between 2014 and 2023. The applicability of all studies was good. However, all studies exhibited a high risk of bias, primarily attributed to inappropriate data sources, insufficient sample size, irrational treatment of variables and missing data, and lack of model validation. The incidence of POP in patients undergoing esophageal cancer surgery ranged from 14.60% to 39.26%. The most frequently used predictors were smoking, age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD), diabetes mellitus, and methods of thoracotomy. Inter-model discrimination ranged from 0.627 to 0.850, sensitivity ranged between 60.7% and 84.0%, and specificity ranged from 59.1% to 83.9%.In all included studies, good discrimination was reported for risk prediction models for POP in patients undergoing esophageal cancer surgery, indicating stable model performance. However, according to the PROBAST checklist, all studies had a high risk of bias. Future studies should use the predictive model assessment tool to improve study design and develop new models with larger samples and multicenter external validation.https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero, identifier CRD42024527085.Copyright © 2024 Jiang, Li, Jiang, Wei and Chen.