预计全球需要姑息治疗的人数将会增加。智利最近出台了立法，为患有严重和末期疾病（包括非癌症疾病）的患者普遍提供姑息治疗服务。我们的目的是估计到 2050 年智利遭受严重健康相关痛苦和需要姑息治疗的人数。我们使用了 1997 年至 2019 年智利登记的所有死亡数据以及 1997 年至 2050 年的人口估计数。我们使用泊松回归来模拟过去的死亡原因趋势，并根据年龄、性别和人口估计进行调整，以预测 2021 年至 2050 年每种原因的死亡人数。我们将柳叶刀姑息治疗和疼痛缓解委员会的权重应用于这些预测识别有姑息治疗需求的死者和非死者。智利的人口姑息治疗需求预计将从 2021 年的 117（95% CI 114 至 120）千人增加到 2050 年的 209（95% CI 198 至 223）千人，增加 79%（IRR 1.79；95% CI 1.78-1.80）。这一增长将由非癌症疾病驱动，特别是痴呆症（IRR 2.9，95% CI 2.85-2.95）和心血管疾病（IRR 1.86，95% CI 1.83-1.89）。到 2050 年，估计需要姑息治疗的人中有 50% 将是非死者（预计不会在一年内死亡）。智利的姑息治疗需求将大幅增加，特别是患有痴呆症和其他非癌症疾病的人。迫切需要提高高质量服务的可用性、扩大临床医生培训和新的可持续护理模式，以确保普遍获得姑息治疗。© 2024。作者。

The number of people with palliative care needs is projected to increase globally. Chile has recently introduced legislation for universal access to palliative care services for patients with severe and terminal illnesses, including non-cancer conditions. We aimed to estimate the number of people affected by serious health-related suffering and need for palliative care in Chile to 2050.We used data on all deaths registered in Chile between 1997-2019 and population estimates for 1997-2050. We used Poisson regression to model past trends in causes of death adjusted by age, sex and population estimates, to project the number of deaths for each cause from 2021 to 2050. We applied the Lancet Commission on Palliative Care and Pain Relief weights to these projections to identify decedents and non-decedents with palliative care needs.Population palliative care needs in Chile are projected to increase from 117 (95% CI 114 to 120) thousand people in 2021 to 209 (95% CI 198 to 223) thousand people in 2050, a 79% increase (IRR 1.79; 95% CI 1.78-1.80). This increase will be driven by non-cancer conditions, particularly dementia (IRR 2.9, 95% CI 2.85-2.95) and cardiovascular conditions (IRR 1.86, 95% CI 1.83-1.89). By 2050, 50% of those estimated to need palliative care will be non-decedents (not expected to die within a year).Chile will experience a large increase in palliative care needs, particularly for people with dementia and other non-cancer conditions. Improved availability of high-quality services, expanded clinician training and new sustainable models of care are urgently required to ensure universal access to palliative care.© 2024. The Author(s).