甲状腺乳头状癌的患病率逐渐上升，年轻化趋势明显。由于身体或经济原因，一些患者可能无法接受作为主要治疗手段的手术。因此，对非手术甲状腺乳头状癌患者的癌症特异性生存率（CSS）进行预测是必要的。患者的人口统计和临床信息是从监测、流行病学和最终结果数据库中提取的。 SPSS软件用于进行Cox回归分析以及倾向评分匹配分析。 R 软件用于构建和验证列线图。采用X-tile软件选择患者风险分层的最佳截止点。本次回顾性研究共纳入1319例患者。经过Cox回归分析后，使用年龄、分级、T分期、M分期、放疗和化疗来构建列线图。 C指数、校准曲线和受试者工作特征曲线均验证了列线图的高预测准确性。决策曲线分析表明，患者可以从该预测模型中获得临床益处。倾向评分匹配后的生存曲线分析证明了放疗对非手术患者CSS的积极影响。我们的回顾性研究成功建立了一个能准确预测非手术甲状腺乳头状癌患者CSS的列线图，并证明手术患者的放疗仍然可以有助于改善预后。这些发现可以帮助临床医生做出更好的选择。版权所有 © 2024 Chen、Tan、Huang 和 Tan。

The prevalence of papillary thyroid cancer is gradually increasing and the trend of youthfulness is obvious. Some patients may not be able to undergo surgery, which is the mainstay of treatment, due to physical or financial reasons. Therefore, the prediction of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with non-operated papillary thyroid cancer is necessary.Patients' demographic and clinical information was extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. SPSS software was used to perform Cox regression analyses as well as propensity score matching analyses. R software was used to construct and validate the nomogram. X-tile software was used to select the best cutoff point for patient risk stratification.A total of 1319 patients were included in this retrospective study. After Cox regression analysis, age, grade, T stage, M stage, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were used to construct the nomogram. C-index, calibration curves, and receiver operating characteristic curves all verified the high predictive accuracy of the nomogram. The decision curve analysis demonstrated that patients could gain clinical benefit from this predictive model. Survival curve analysis after propensity score matching demonstrated the positive effects of radiotherapy on CSS in non-operated patients.Our retrospective study successfully established a nomogram that accurately predicts CSS in patients with non-operated papillary thyroid cancer and demonstrated that radiotherapy for operated patients can still help improve prognosis. These findings can help clinicians make better choices.Copyright © 2024 Chen, Tan, Huang and Tan.