比较1990年至2021年中国和美国白血病的世俗趋势及其未来15年的预测
Comparison of secular trends of leukemia in China and the United States from 1990 to 2021 and their projections for the next 15 years
影响因子:3.40000
分区:医学3区 / 公共卫生3区
发表日期:2024
作者:
Xinyi Ge, Lifei Zhang, Qiaolei Zhang, Jianhua Feng, Linlin Yang, Yuxin Tong, Shan Zheng, Yamin Tan
摘要
白血病在中国和美国造成了巨大的医疗保健负担。两国之间的疾病负担很大，但相关研究是有限的。我们探讨了中国和美国之间白血病发病率和死亡率的差异。从1990年到2021年，中国白血病的数据是从2021年全球疾病负担数据库中收集的。发病率和死亡率被用来估计疾病负担，并进行了连接点回归以比较其世俗趋势。我们使用年龄段 - 霍特模型来分析未来15年的年龄，周期和出生队列的影响以及未来的未来趋势。在2021年，年龄标准化的发病率（ASIR）和白血病的年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）在中国低于美国。但是，急性淋巴细胞白血病的发病率和死亡率在中国高得多。在过去的几十年中，ASIR在美国显示出趋势下降，而ASIR在中国显示稳定。从1990年到2021年，两国的ASDR倾向于减少。男性的发病率和死亡率比两国的女性高。年龄的影响表明，儿童和年龄较大的人在中国发病率和死亡率具有更高的RR，而在美国的发病率和死亡率的RR在老年人群中的发病率和死亡率尤其增加。在中国，儿童白血病的疾病负担显然更大。在未来15年中，白血病的ASIR和ASDRS将继续下降，在中国和美国，美国经历了更明显的下降趋势。在过去的几十年中，两个国家的ASDRS都倾向于下降。与美国相比，中国的发病率和死亡率较低，但是中国的Asirs倾向于稳定，这在美国被显示下来。在中国，儿童的发病率和死亡率显然具有更大的RR。在两个国家，发病率和死亡率将不断降低。需要采取有效的干预措施来减轻白血病的负担。
Abstract
Leukemia imposes a large healthcare burden both in China and the United States (US). The disease burden differs greatly between the two countries, but related research is limited. We explored the differences in leukemia incidence and mortality between China and the US.Data on leukemia in China and the US from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. Incidence and mortality were used to estimate the disease burden, and joinpoint regression was performed to compare their secular trends. We used an age-period-cohort model to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort and project future trends in the next 15 years.In 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of leukemia were lower in China than in the US. However, the incidence and mortality of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) was considerably higher in China. In the past decades, the ASIR showed decreased tendency in the US, while ASIR showed stable in China. The ASDR tended to decrease in both countries from 1990 to 2021. Males have higher rates of incidence and mortality than females in two countries. The age effects showed that children and older individuals have higher RRs for incidence and mortality in China, while the RRs for incidence and mortality in the US particularly increased in the older population. The disease burden of leukemia in children is obviously greater in China. The ASIRs and ASDRs of leukemia will continue to decline in the next 15 years in China and the US, with the US experiencing a more obvious downtrend.Over the past decades, the ASDRs in two countries both tended to decrease. And compared to the US, China had lower leukemia incidence and mortality, However, the ASIRs in China tended toward stable, which it was showed downtrend in the US. Children have obviously greater RRs for incidence and mortality in China. The incidence and mortality will decrease continuously in two countries. Effective intervention measures are needed to reduce the burden of leukemia.