结直肠癌仍然是全球主要的公共卫生挑战。其发病率是由筛查计划​​与年龄、时期和队列因素之间复杂的相互作用决定的。我们引入了一种新颖的年龄-时期-队列-筛查 (APCS) 模型来分析 2000 年至 2019 年台湾结直肠癌发病率的趋势。2010 年台湾结直肠癌发病率男性增加19.2%（95% CI：13.5%、25.3%），女性增加15.6%（95% CI：9.2%、22.4%）。其次是年度下降，分别为 3.4%（95% CI：2.8%、4.1%）和 3.1%（95% CI：2.4%、3.9%）。到 2015 年，男性和 2014 年女性的年龄标准化发病率已低于无筛查情况下的预测水平。到 2019 年，与不筛查情况相比，男性发病率进一步下降 12.4%（95% CI：11.8%、13.1%），女性发病率进一步下降 11.6%（95% CI：10.7%、12.6%）。从 1920 年到 1980 年，队列效应持续上升：男性发病率增加了 5.8 倍，女性发病率增加了 3.1 倍。 1980年后，这一趋势开始趋于稳定，女性人数明显下降。通过筛查计划，截至2019年，台湾已成功将结直肠癌发病率降低了10%。此外，由于队列效应，发病率已趋于稳定，甚至开始下降。然而，持续监测仍然至关重要。先进的 APCS 模型可以作为其他研究人员和政策制定者评估癌症筛查计划对发病趋势影响的强大分析工具。© 作者 2024；版权所有。由牛津大学出版社代表国际流行病学协会出版。

Colorectal cancer remains a major global public health challenge. Its incidence is shaped by a complex interplay of screening programmes and age, period and cohort factors.We introduce a novel Age-Period-Cohort-Screening (APCS) model to analyse trends in colorectal cancer incidence in Taiwan from 2000 to 2019.In 2010, the incidence of colorectal cancer in Taiwan increased by 19.2% (95% CI: 13.5%, 25.3%) for men and 15.6% (95% CI: 9.2%, 22.4%) for women. This was followed by annual declines of 3.4% (95% CI: 2.8%, 4.1%) and 3.1% (95% CI: 2.4%, 3.9%), respectively. By 2015 for men and 2014 for women, the age-standardized incidence had fallen below the levels projected in a no-screening scenario. By 2019, the incidence had further declined by 12.4% (95% CI: 11.8%, 13.1%) for men and 11.6% (95% CI: 10.7%, 12.6%) for women, compared with the no-screening scenario. Cohort effects have shown a persistent rise from 1920 to 1980: incidence increased 5.8-fold for men and 3.1-fold for women. The trend began to plateau after 1980, with a noticeable decline in women.Through its screening programme, Taiwan has successfully reduced colorectal cancer incidence by 10% as of 2019. Furthermore, the incidence due to cohort effects has plateaued and even begun to decline. However, continued monitoring remains crucial. The advanced APCS model could serve as a robust analytical tool for other researchers and policy makers evaluating the impacts of cancer screening programmes on incidence trends.© The Author(s) 2024; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.