延迟治疗原发性葡萄膜黑色素瘤的预后影响仍有争议。我们评估了脉络膜痣和黑色素瘤倍增时间对转移性死亡发生率的影响，并比较了不同肿瘤大小的这种影响。 PubMed 和 Web of Science 中的一项文献检索针对 1980 年后发表的研究，这些研究根据连续成像对脉络膜或纤毛脉络膜黑色素瘤或痣的生长率进行了量化，从 5 项研究中发现了 199 种黑色素瘤和 87 种生长痣。在随机效应模型中，所有患者的估计平均体积倍增时间为 360 天，小型、中型和大型黑色素瘤的倍增时间分别为 717、421 和 307 天，生长痣的倍增时间为 6392 天。混合效应模型估计，小型、中型和大型黑色素瘤未经治疗，10 年转移性死亡发生率每月增加 0.3、1.8 和 4.0 个百分点。使用两个独立的生存数据来源得出了类似的结果。这些发现表明，脉络膜黑色素瘤的生长遵循超指数曲线，较大的肿瘤表现出较短的倍增时间。根据这些增长率，延迟确定性治疗会使转移性死亡的风险每月增加近零到几个百分点，具体取决于肿瘤大小。版权所有 © 2024 作者。由爱思唯尔公司出版。保留所有权利。

The prognostic implications of delaying treatment for primary uveal melanoma remain debated. We evaluate the impact of choroidal nevi and melanoma doubling times on metastatic death incidence and compare this impact across different tumor sizes. A literature search in PubMed and Web of Science targeted studies published after 1980 that quantified growth rates for choroidal or ciliochoroidal melanomas or nevi based on serial imaging found 199 melanomas and 87 growing nevi from 5 studies. In a random effects model, the estimated average volume doubling time was 360 days across all patients, with doubling times of 717, 421, and 307 days for small, medium, and large melanomas, respectively, and 6392 days for growing nevi. A mixed-effects model estimated that the 10-year incidence of metastatic death increases by 0.3, 1.8, and 4.0 percentage points every month a small, medium, and large melanoma remains untreated. Similar results were produced using two independent sources for survival data. These findings suggest that choroidal melanoma growth follows a super-exponential curve, with larger tumors exhibiting shorter doubling times. Based on these growth rates, delaying definitive treatment increases the risk of metastatic death by nearly zero to several percentage points per month, depending on tumor size.Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.