开发一个整合临床病理和影像学变量的列线图，以预测接受保乳手术 (BCS) 治疗的导管原位癌 (DCIS) 女性的同侧乳腺肿瘤复发 (IBTR)。这项回顾性研究包括连续接受保乳手术 (BCS) 治疗的导管原位癌 (DCIS) 女性在两家医院接受了 BCS。 2003 年至 2016 年期间在一家医院接受 BCS 治疗的患者以及 2005 年至 2013 年期间在另一家医院接受 BCS 治疗的患者分别被分为开发组和验证组。十二个临床病理变量（年龄、家族史、初始表现、核分级、坏死、切缘宽度、切除次数、DCIS 大小、雌激素受体、孕激素受体、放射治疗和内分泌治疗）和六个乳房 X 光检查和超声变量（乳房）分析了密度、检测方式、乳房X线照相术和超声模式、钙化的形态和分布。使用从开发队列中的 Cox 比例风险回归分析中确定的与 IBTR 相关的变量构建了预测 10 年 IBTR 概率的列线图。使用校准图和受试者工作特征曲线下 10 年面积 (AUROC) 在外部验证队列中评估所开发列线图的性能，并与纪念斯隆-凯特琳癌症中心 (MSKCC) 列线图进行比较。开发队列包括702 名女性（中位年龄 [四分位距]，50 [44-56] 岁），其中 30 名 (4%) 女性经历过 IBTR。验证队列包括 182 名女性（48 [43-54] 岁），其中 18 名 (10%) 患有 IBTR。使用三个临床病理变量（年龄、边缘和辅助放射治疗的使用）和两个乳房X线照相变量（乳房密度和钙化形态）构建列线图。该列线图经过适当校准，并在验证队列中证明了与 MSKCC 列线图相当的 10 年 AUROC（0.73 与 0.66，P = 0.534）。我们的列线图为接受 BCS 治疗的 DCIS 女性提供了个体化风险估计，展示了区分能力与 MSKCC 列线图相当。版权所有 © 2024 韩国放射学会。

To develop a nomogram that integrates clinical-pathologic and imaging variables to predict ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) in women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) treated with breast-conserving surgery (BCS).This retrospective study included consecutive women with DCIS who underwent BCS at two hospitals. Patients who underwent BCS between 2003 and 2016 in one hospital and between 2005 and 2013 in another were classified into development and validation cohorts, respectively. Twelve clinical-pathologic variables (age, family history, initial presentation, nuclear grade, necrosis, margin width, number of excisions, DCIS size, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, radiation therapy, and endocrine therapy) and six mammography and ultrasound variables (breast density, detection modality, mammography and ultrasound patterns, morphology and distribution of calcifications) were analyzed. A nomogram for predicting 10-year IBTR probabilities was constructed using the variables associated with IBTR identified from the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis in the development cohort. The performance of the developed nomogram was evaluated in the external validation cohort using a calibration plot and 10-year area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and compared with the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram.The development cohort included 702 women (median age [interquartile range], 50 [44-56] years), of whom 30 (4%) women experienced IBTR. The validation cohort included 182 women (48 [43-54] years), 18 (10%) of whom developed IBTR. A nomogram was constructed using three clinical-pathologic variables (age, margin, and use of adjuvant radiation therapy) and two mammographic variables (breast density and calcification morphology). The nomogram was appropriately calibrated and demonstrated a comparable 10-year AUROC to the MSKCC nomogram (0.73 vs. 0.66, P = 0.534) in the validation cohort.Our nomogram provided individualized risk estimates for women with DCIS treated with BCS, demonstrating a discriminative ability comparable to that of the MSKCC nomogram.Copyright © 2024 The Korean Society of Radiology.