口腔癌是全球第六大常见癌症，带来了重大的健康问题，特别是在印度，口腔癌占全球病例的三分之一。尽管发病率和死亡率很高，但有关危险因素和趋势的国家和地区综合数据却很少。本研究分析了《2021 年全球疾病负担》(GBD) 报告中的数据，重点关注年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR)、死亡率1990年至2021年印度口腔癌的发病率（ASMR）、伤残调整生命年（ASDR）和患病率（ASPR）。使用Joinpoint回归分析评估趋势，并应用ARIMA模型预测2022年至2021年的未来趋势2031.从 1990 年到 2021 年，印度口腔癌死亡率略有上升，ASMR 从 5.32 上升到 5.92，年变化百分比 (APC) 为 11.18%。 ASDR 从 152.94 增加到 163.61（APC 为 6.98%），ASPR 从 15.71 显着增加到 25.46（APC 为 62.06%）。各州的负担差异很大。观察到性别差异，男性的发病率和死亡率始终较高。 ARIMA 预测，从 2022 年到 2031 年，口腔癌指标将呈上升趋势，到 2031 年，ASIR 预计将达到每 10 万人中的 10.15 例，ASPR 将达到每 10 万人中的 29.38 例。该研究揭示了印度口腔癌负担持续且不断增长，凸显了生活方式的影响和社会经济因素。为了减少疾病的影响，迫切需要采取有针对性的策略来减轻风险行为、改善早期检测和解决差异问题。版权所有 © 2024 Elsevier Ltd。保留所有权利。

Oral cancer is the sixth most prevalent cancer globally, posing a significant health concern, especially in India, where it accounts for one-third of the global cases. Despite high incidence and mortality rates, comprehensive national and regional data on risk factors and trends are scarce.This study analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 report, focusing on the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate (ASMR), disability-adjusted life years (ASDR), and prevalence rate (ASPR) of oral cancer in India from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess trends, and ARIMA models were applied to forecast future trends from 2022 to 2031.From 1990 to 2021, India experienced a moderate increase in oral cancer mortality, with ASMR rising from 5.32 to 5.92, reflecting an annual percentage change (APC) of 11.18 %. ASDR increased from 152.94 to 163.61 (APC of 6.98 %), and ASPR showed a marked rise from 15.71 to 25.46 (APC of 62.06 %). The burden varied significantly across states. Gender disparities were observed, with males consistently exhibiting higher incidence and mortality rates. ARIMA forecasts projected an upward trend in oral cancer metrics from 2022 to 2031, with ASIR expected to reach 10.15 per 100,000 and ASPR 29.38 per 100,000 by 2031.The study reveals a persistent and growing burden of oral cancer in India, highlighting the influence of lifestyle and socioeconomic factors. Targeted strategies to mitigate risk behaviors, improve early detection, and address disparities are urgently needed to reduce the disease's impact.Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.