森林覆盖率对肺癌发病率的影响：四川西南地区的案例研究

森林与人体健康密切相关，尤其涉及肺癌发病率。目前关于森林覆盖率及不同类型森林对肺癌影响的研究较少。本研究旨在通过分析四川西南地区不同森林类型覆盖率对肺癌发病率的影响，为健康导向的森林结构规划提供理论依据。我们以西南地区438个县为研究对象，采用空间自相关分析（Moran's I）和空间回归模型（包括空间滞后模型SLM、空间误差模型SEM和空间Durbin模型SDM）探讨森林覆盖率及内部森林结构对肺癌发病率的影响，并利用ArcGIS进行空间可视化。研究发现，森林覆盖率与肺癌发病率呈显著负相关：每增加1%的森林覆盖率，肺癌发病率降低0.017个水平。常绿林和混交林对肺癌率具有显著负向影响，常绿林尤为明显，每增加1%的常绿林覆盖率，肺癌发病率降低0.027个水平；阔叶林则无显著影响。此外，研究还发现西南地区肺癌发病率与森林覆盖存在明显空间异质性：东部地区肺癌较高，而森林覆盖主要集中在西部和南部。本研究表明，增加森林覆盖率尤其是常绿和混交森林，有助于降低肺癌发生风险，可能与森林吸收有害气体和颗粒物的能力有关。同时，肺癌空间分布的异质性提示地区经济发展水平和城市化进程也在肺癌空间分布中发挥重要作用。这些发现为区域森林保护与发展政策的制定提供了实证支持，旨在优化区域森林结构，降低肺癌风险。

Forests are closely linked to human health, particularly about lung cancer incidence. However, there is currently limited research on how forest coverage and different types of forests influence lung cancer rates. This study aims to address this gap by examining how the coverage of various forest types impacts lung cancer incidence in Southwest China, thereby providing theoretical support for health-oriented forest structure planning.We focused on 438 counties in Southwest China, employing spatial autocorrelation analysis (Moran's I) and spatial regression models [including Spatial Lag Model (SLM), Spatial Error Model (SEM), and Spatial Durbin Model (SDM)] to explore the effects of forest coverage and internal forest structure on lung cancer incidence. We used ArcGIS to visualize lung cancer incidence and forest coverage rates across the study area.The study found a significant negative correlation between forest coverage and lung cancer incidence. Specifically, for every 1% increase in forest coverage, lung cancer incidence decreased by 0.017 levels. Evergreen forests and mixed forests showed a significant negative impact on lung cancer rates, with evergreen forests having a particularly strong effect; a 1% increase in evergreen forest coverage was associated with a 0.027 level decrease in lung cancer incidence. In contrast, deciduous forests had no significant impact. Additionally, the study revealed a marked spatial heterogeneity in lung cancer incidence and forest coverage across Southwest China: higher lung cancer rates were observed in the eastern regions, while forest coverage was predominantly concentrated in the western and southern regions.This study demonstrates that increasing forest coverage, particularly of evergreen and mixed forests, can help reduce lung cancer incidence. This effect may be related to the ability of forests to absorb harmful gasses and particulate matter from the air. Furthermore, the spatial heterogeneity in lung cancer incidence suggests that regional economic development levels and urbanization processes may also play significant roles in the spatial distribution of lung cancer rates. The findings provide empirical support for the development of targeted forest conservation and development policies aimed at optimizing regional forest structures to reduce the risk of lung cancer.