及时分析癌症发病趋势对于癌症预防和控制至关重要，癌症预防和控制是中国的一项公共卫生重点。 估算 1983 年至 2017 年中国 32 种癌症的发病趋势并预测到 2032 年的变化，评估由于危险因素和影响而导致的明显变化这项基于人群的队列研究使用了五大洲癌症发病率数据库（1983-2017）的数据。收集了 32 种癌症的新病例。数据分析时间为 2023 年 10 月 15 日至 2024 年 5 月 23 日。根据世界卫生组织世界标准人口标准化的年龄标准化发病率 (AIR)、使用连接点回归的平均年度百分比变化 (AAPC) 以及因衰老而导致的百分比变化分析中总共纳入了 3677027 例新癌症病例（54.9% 男性，45.1% 女性）。从 1983 年到 2017 年，观察到 11 种男性癌症和 14 种女性癌症 AIRS 增加，预计这一趋势将持续到 2032 年。甲状腺癌的增幅最高（AAPC：男性为 7.82%；95% CI，6.92%-10.38%；女性为 8.59%；95% CI，7.84%-10.42%），其次是前列腺癌（4.71%；95% CI，3.12%-9.95%）和肾癌（3.61%；95% CI，3.11%-5.82%）在男性中，宫颈癌（4.43%；95% CI，3.36%-9.44%）和肾癌（3.66%；95% CI，2.98%-6.86%）在女性中。 1983-2017年，男性肺癌AIRs呈下降趋势，女性呈上升趋势。相比之下，从 1983 年到 2032 年，胃癌、肝癌、喉癌、鼻癌和鼻窦癌的 AIR 有所下降。从 2018 年到 2032 年，癌症病例预计将增加，主要是由于男性 18 种癌症和女性 11 种癌症的危险因素，而老龄化可能与其他癌症的增加有关。在这项针对普通人群癌症发病率的队列研究中，中国的癌症格局正在演变，发病率不断增加主要是由于 20 种癌症的危险因素和其他癌症的老龄化。减少风险暴露的一级预防工作至关重要，还需要进一步的基础研究。此外，二级预防工作对于提高癌症生存率至关重要，尤其是老年人。

Timely analysis of cancer incidence trends is crucial for cancer prevention and control, which is a public health priority in China.To estimate incidence trends for 32 cancers in China from 1983 to 2017 and project changes to 2032, assessing distinct changes due to risk factors and an aging population.This population-based cohort study used data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database (1983-2017). New cases of 32 cancers were collected. Data were analyzed from October 15, 2023, to May 23, 2024.Age-standardized incidence rate (AIR) standardized to the World Health Organization World Standard Population, average annual percentage changes (AAPC) using joinpoint regression, and percentage change due to aging and risk factors, using Møller decomposition analysis, stratified by cancer and sex.A total of 3 677 027 new cancer cases (54.9% male, 45.1% female) were included in the analysis. Increased AIRS were observed for 11 cancers in males and 14 in females from 1983 to 2017, with trends expected to continue until 2032. Thyroid cancer showed the highest increase (AAPC: 7.82% in males; 95% CI, 6.92%-10.38%; 8.59% in females; 95% CI, 7.84%-10.42%), followed by prostate (4.71%; 95% CI, 3.12%-9.95%) and kidney (3.61%; 95% CI, 3.11%-5.82%) cancers in males, and cervical (4.43%; 95% CI, 3.36%-9.44%) and kidney (3.66%; 95% CI, 2.98%-6.86%) cancers in females. The AIRs of lung cancer tended to decrease in males but increase in females during 1983-2017. In contrast, the AIRs of stomach, liver, larynx, and nose and sinuses cancers decreased from 1983 to 2032. From 2018 to 2032, cancer cases were projected to increase primarily due to risk factors for 18 cancers in males and 11 in females, while aging would be associated with the increase in other cancers.In this population-based cohort study of incident cancer in the general population, the cancer landscape in China is evolving, with an increasing incidence primarily due to risk factors in 20 cancers and aging in others. Primary prevention efforts to reduce risk exposure are crucial, and further basic research is needed. Additionally, second prevention efforts are imperative to improve cancer survival, particularly among older individuals.