中国癌症发病率和潜在相关因素的趋势

及时分析癌症发病率趋势对于预防癌症和控制是至关重要的，这是中国的公共卫生优先事项。估计1983年至2017年中国32次癌症的发病率趋势，并对2032年的项目变化，评估危险因素和衰老人群的危险因素的明显变化。基于人群的人群研究使用了五个持续性数据的癌症数据，从而在五个持续的数据中使用了数据。收集了32例癌症的新病例。从2023年10月15日至2024年5月23日对数据进行了分析。该年龄标准化的发生率（AIR）标准化为世界卫生组织世界标准人群，使用联接点回归使用的年度百分比变化（AAPC），以及衰老和风险因素的百分比变化，使用Mølller分解分析，由Møller分解分析，按癌症和性别分层。cancel和seal.a cancel and salter.a canse and canse and canse and canse and cans cansy and cansy cansy cansy cansy new cancer cancer and cance in 3.54. 54.均为54. cance nyphy cancel（54. n4.9％）。从1983年到2017年，观察到11种癌症的空气增加，女性有14例，预计趋势将持续到2032年。甲状腺癌显示出最高的增长（AAPC：7.82％的男性； 95％CI，6.92％，6.92％-10.38％；女性为8.59％； 95％CI，7.84％-10.84％-10％，4.84％42％，4.42％（4.42％）； CI, 3.12%-9.95%) and kidney (3.61%; 95% CI, 3.11%-5.82%) cancers in males, and cervical (4.43%; 95% CI, 3.36%-9.44%) and kidney (3.66%; 95% CI, 2.98%-6.86%) cancers in females.肺癌的空气往往会减少男性，但女性在1983 - 2017年期间增加。相比之下，胃，肝，喉部和鼻子和鼻腔癌的气息从1983年到2032年减少。从2018年到2032年，预计癌症病例主要是由于男性的18种癌症和11种癌症的危险因素而增加，而女性中的癌症则与其他人群中的癌症相关，而aging则将与癌症的增加相关。发生率的增加主要是由于20种癌症的危险因素和其他癌症的衰老。减少风险敞口的主要预防工作至关重要，需要进一步的基础研究。此外，第二次预防工作对于改善癌症生存至关重要，尤其是在老年人中。

Timely analysis of cancer incidence trends is crucial for cancer prevention and control, which is a public health priority in China.To estimate incidence trends for 32 cancers in China from 1983 to 2017 and project changes to 2032, assessing distinct changes due to risk factors and an aging population.This population-based cohort study used data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database (1983-2017). New cases of 32 cancers were collected. Data were analyzed from October 15, 2023, to May 23, 2024.Age-standardized incidence rate (AIR) standardized to the World Health Organization World Standard Population, average annual percentage changes (AAPC) using joinpoint regression, and percentage change due to aging and risk factors, using Møller decomposition analysis, stratified by cancer and sex.A total of 3 677 027 new cancer cases (54.9% male, 45.1% female) were included in the analysis. Increased AIRS were observed for 11 cancers in males and 14 in females from 1983 to 2017, with trends expected to continue until 2032. Thyroid cancer showed the highest increase (AAPC: 7.82% in males; 95% CI, 6.92%-10.38%; 8.59% in females; 95% CI, 7.84%-10.42%), followed by prostate (4.71%; 95% CI, 3.12%-9.95%) and kidney (3.61%; 95% CI, 3.11%-5.82%) cancers in males, and cervical (4.43%; 95% CI, 3.36%-9.44%) and kidney (3.66%; 95% CI, 2.98%-6.86%) cancers in females. The AIRs of lung cancer tended to decrease in males but increase in females during 1983-2017. In contrast, the AIRs of stomach, liver, larynx, and nose and sinuses cancers decreased from 1983 to 2032. From 2018 to 2032, cancer cases were projected to increase primarily due to risk factors for 18 cancers in males and 11 in females, while aging would be associated with the increase in other cancers.In this population-based cohort study of incident cancer in the general population, the cancer landscape in China is evolving, with an increasing incidence primarily due to risk factors in 20 cancers and aging in others. Primary prevention efforts to reduce risk exposure are crucial, and further basic research is needed. Additionally, second prevention efforts are imperative to improve cancer survival, particularly among older individuals.